Michigan’s Fight Over Prediction Markets
March 2026
Prediction markets are getting a lot of legal attention as state regulators argue over who gets to control them. Michigan has become a big hotspot in this debate.
Four cases show how fast this is heating up. In December 2025, Coinbase filed a federal lawsuit against Michigan. On March 3, 2026, Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel issued a press release on filing a state court lawsuit against Kalshi. One day later, Polymarket filed a federal lawsuit to block Michigan’s enforcement. Finally, Robinhood filed a federal lawsuit against Michigan. Together, these four cases show the tension between the platforms, the state, and federal regulators.
The Cases
Coinbase v. Michigan (Dec. 2025)
Coinbase filed a federal lawsuit claiming the Commodity Exchange Act gives the CFTC exclusive authority over prediction markets, blocking Michigan from applying state gambling laws. The case is still pending in federal court, with preliminary motions about jurisdiction and preemption under review.
Michigan v. Kalshi (Mar. 3, 2026)
Michigan originally sued Kalshi in state court to block it from offering sports-related event contracts. The case has since been removed to federal court, where Kalshi argues that federal law preempts Michigan’s gambling rules. The federal court is reviewing whether it should retain jurisdiction or return the case to state court.
Polymarket v. Michigan (Mar. 4, 2026)
Polymarket quickly filed a federal suit to block enforcement of Michigan gambling laws against its contracts. Like Coinbase, Polymarket argues that federal law preempts state regulation. The case is in the early stages, with both sides filing initial motions for preliminary relief. The court denied Polymarket’s motion for a temporary restraining order on March 10 and will move forward with considering Polymarket’s motion for a preliminary injunction.
Robinhood v. Michigan (Mar. 2026)
Robinhood filed a federal lawsuit seeking to prevent Michigan from enforcing state gambling rules against its event contracts. This case is also ongoing, with early procedural motions focusing on whether Michigan’s laws apply to federally regulated platforms.
The Bigger Picture
Michigan is just one of several states dealing with these cases. Courts are split on whether these contracts fall under federal law or state gambling laws. Some courts have blocked state enforcement for now, while others let it go forward.
There’s still no clear answer. As more cases go through the courts, judges will have to decide whether the CFTC regulation preempts state regulation What happens in Michigan could affect how prediction markets work in other states, although it is likely that there will be a split among the appellate circuit courts and that it will ultimately be determined by the U.S. Supreme Court.
Gun Lake Casino Executive Appointed to Michigan Travel Commission
Gretchen Whitmer has appointed Brian Decorah, senior vice president and general manager of Gun Lake Casino Resort, to the Michigan Travel Commission. His four year term will begin on Aug. 21.
Decorah has more than 30 years of experience in the gaming and hospitality industry, including managing major casino and hotel properties. Whitmer cited his experience in the travel, tourism, and recreation industries as a key reason for the appointment.
The Michigan Travel Commission works to promote and develop tourism across the state and supports the Michigan Travel Bureau. Decorah said he is honored to serve and looks forward to contributing to the growth of Michigan’s tourism and hospitality industries, including in West Michigan.
Detroit Casinos Report $100.6 Million in February Revenue
According to February revenue figures released by the Michigan Gaming Control Board (“MGCB”), the three Detroit casinos reported $100.6 million in monthly aggregate revenue.
Table games and slots accounted for $100.0 million, while retail sports betting generated $560,960 in qualified adjusted gross receipts.
The February market shares were:
- MGM, 48%
- MotorCity, 29%
- Hollywood Casino at Greektown, 23%
February 2026 table games and slot revenue increased 2.0% compared with February 2025 and declined 3.0% from January 2026. For the period Jan. 1 through Feb. 28, revenue was up 1.4% year over year.
Casino-level results compared with February 2025 were:
- MGM, up 4.1% to $48.3 million
- MotorCity, up 3.3% to $29.4 million
- Hollywood Casino at Greektown, down 3.7% to $22.3 million
The three Detroit casinos paid $8.1 million in gaming taxes to the State of Michigan. The casinos also reported submitting $11.9 million in wagering taxes and development agreement payments to the City of Detroit in February.
The three Detroit casinos reported $6.5 million in total retail sports betting handle and total gross receipts of $578,285 for the month.
February QAGR by property were:
- MGM, $134,420
- MotorCity, $159,851
- Hollywood Casino at Greektown, $266,689
The three Detroit casinos submitted taxes on retail sports betting in the amounts of $21,204 to the State of Michigan and $25,916 to the City of Detroit for February 2026.
In addition to reporting revenue from the three Detroit casinos, the MGCB released revenue numbers from fantasy contest operators.
Fantasy contest operators reported total adjusted revenues of $991,827 and paid taxes of $83,313 for January 2026.